[somedude]

Your strategic thinking is off Rotter because between the Turkish border and ISIS/ISIL occupied Mosul is Iraqi Kurdistan with the Peshmerga who have so far been the most successful force at fighting ISIS! In fact, with NATO air support the Peshmerga from Iraqi Kurdistan have cut the main supply route between ISIS occupied Syria and Mosul when they took Sinjar and surrounding areas earlier this year. So any ISIS forces fleeing North from Mosul are going to run right into the Peshmerga moving south on the city, which I'm sure will be part of the grand strategy. The real worry is how many unfortunate civilians in Mosul are going to be caught in the fighting!