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Old 04-21-2018, 04:30 AM   #747
tom8517
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The various dissident groups are allowed to exist, but not for the reasons you suggest. You're correct that both the government and the Provos have the capability of ending them very quickly, that they do not has to do with very different motivations.

That the security forces don't launch a massive crackdown has far more to do with the political climate in the UK as a whole. You've posted many times about the kid glove handling of jihadists in mainland Britain. The same holds true in the north. And if it did come to pass the sight of heavily armed police snatch squads spreading out through the nationalist areas would most likely be a huge boon for Sinn Fein. Even the most timid of SDLP voters would be moved into the republican camp.

Then the question of why does the IRA allow the dissidents to function? This is my personal theory on that. British intelligence has concluded that the Provisional's Army Council most likely still exists, and they maintain a limited number of volunteers on active service. They have also concluded that there is no evidence that are engaged in any paramilitary activities. I believe they are still there to guard against the unlikely doomsday scenario of the north completely going up in flames again.

They may see the dissidents as a ready pool of potential recruits. A few well publicized executions and the threat of more to follow would bring the various factions under the Provo's control very quickly.

A theory, a bit far fetched I'll admit. But no more so than the thought of a vast conspiracy between the government and the IRA.

Last edited by tom8517; 04-21-2018 at 04:46 AM.
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