Mosul Stakes.
 

So, after the capture of Ramadi over the holiday, the Iraqi government have declared that 2016 is the year Islamic State are driven out of Mosul.

I can see a slight problem with this. Mosul is considerably nearer the border with the rest of the world than Ramadi. In particular Turkey, which whilst supposedly an ally of every thing apple pie and Levi jeans in the world, seems to some what fall on the side of Izal when it comes to actually playing the game.

So what happens when one of the smallest bunches of the biggest cunts in the world are cornered by the Iraqi army against the border with NATO? Total annihilation? Or will Turkey just let them slip quietly across the border? Not exactly an unprecedented event in recent years....

Your strategic thinking is off Rotter because between the Turkish border and ISIS/ISIL occupied Mosul is Iraqi Kurdistan with the Peshmerga who have so far been the most successful force at fighting ISIS! In fact, with NATO air support the Peshmerga from Iraqi Kurdistan have cut the main supply route between ISIS occupied Syria and Mosul when they took Sinjar and surrounding areas earlier this year. So any ISIS forces fleeing North from Mosul are going to run right into the Peshmerga moving south on the city, which I'm sure will be part of the grand strategy. The real worry is how many unfortunate civilians in Mosul are going to be caught in the fighting!

So you think Izal are more likely to remain in Mosul and try and hold it? Footage I've seen from Ramadi doesn't show any prisoners, which suggests either they were all killed, or were able to blend in and escape.

I would imagine that they'll put up a fight at Mosul till it look like they'll lose, then try to slip away while leaving tons of booby-traps behind them like they have done before.

Slip away where though? If you were a piece of Izal arse wipe, where would you go after Mosul?

I would imagine that they'd head south and west toward parts of Iraq and Syria that they still hold if Mosul became to hot to handle.

Ok, to give you more of a perspective on this, two of the Paris attackers are known to have come to Europe from Syria, pretending to be refugees. German police are currently seeking 7 Iraqi men suspected to have been plotting to carry out a similar attack in Munich last night.

To get to Western Europe, these people would almost certainly have passed through Turkey. Izal fighters seem to be able to pass to and fro with impunity, despite assurances from Turkey to the contrary. Lets not forget that the Kurds are effectively at war with Turkey also, so there is little reason for the Turks not to let Izal slip through.

There is also evidence to suggest Izal is selling oil to Turkey in order to fund their war.

So, given that Izal fighters in Mosul are really contributing any thing to the bigger picture as far as Izal are concerned, would it not be just as likely that some of them might be sent from Mosul to wage war outside of Iraq and Syria?

ISIS/ISIL fighters fleeing from a defeat at Mosul may well eventually end up being sent to places beyond Iraq and Syria to continue on their organizations insane fight. However, to go through Turkey they will first have to make their way from Mosul through Iraq and Syria since geography and geopolitics dictates that course!

Sky News website is reporting that the Iraqi president has announced the defeat of IZAL in Mosul. The situation looks promising for the wannabe Paradisealites in Raqqa also. Europe should probably prepare for a bloodbath.

Austria has already stated its intention to close its border with Italy, despite this being illegal. Italy itself has called for a complete blockade of North African ports, whilst an organisation in Italy has set about rescuing people from the sea and returning them to North Africa, instead of taking them to Europe.

That's a great move. I've been reading that lately aid ships are sitting close to North African shores literally waiting for boats and rafts full of refugees to come up to them, then taking them to Italy. Up to 5,000 refugees per day apparently. The right answer is to just dump them back on the beach and could discourage most refugees from even trying to get out of Africa.

Who know where they will end up. Piles of abandoned ISIL beards have been found, their owners obviously vanished out of Mosul rather than fighting to the death.

IZAL are pretty much obliterated in the "Caliphate". Elsewhere it is a different story though, with pockets in North Africa, particularly Libya, Nigeria, Philipines, being controlled by them and their affiliates. Fighters fleeing Mosul and Raqqa could end up in those places if not Europe.

Yes I think the most likely scenario is they will flee to the nearest ISIL group and grow their fucking beards again.

An article on the Mail Online website is describing how in the last four weeks ISIS cells have been popping up in as diverse places as Russia, Ireland, and DR Congo. Looks like the boys are escaping after all. No doubt aided by the Syrian, Turkish and Iraqi suppression of the Kurds.

No doubt they regrew their beards by now. I believe they use their beards to disguise themselves when they are raping women. Bastards.

It is looking like British jihadist "Sa'eed Abdul al Britani" ended his days in an IZAL death camp in Raqqa. Oh well.

I read recently that France would prefer their exported ISIS fighters dead, rather than have them come back to France. They have apparently been encouraging anti-ISIS forces in Iraq to kill any French ISIS member that are captured.
That's the proper way to do it. A bullet in the head, save all the expense of trials and the risk of these fuckers recruiting more people in jail.

An estimated 850 British citizens travelled to Iraq and Syria to join IZAL. Of those, many have been confirmed dead, around half have returned, the rest are unaccounted for. Some of those that have returned have been jailed, the rest seem to be free to go about their business.

There is a far greater problem though. Russia, outside of Tunisia, has contributed the greatest number of fighters to IZAL. It is a guaranteed death sentence to any that return, but many have been able to go to Ukraine instead. Ukraine, having undergone an EU engineered military coup, recently signed a visa free travel agreement with the European Union, which means any one holding a Ukrainian passport can just walk in. It seems pretty easy for any one in the new regime there claiming asylum from Russia to get a passport.

There are presently an estimated 900 IZAL fighters sheltering in Ukraine.

"The only way to deal with British Islamic State fighters is to kill them in almost every case, a minister has said"

The words of Foreign Office minister Rory Stewart, according to Sky News website.

Does he include those that have returned to the United Kingdom in that statement? He'll have the bleeding hearts screaming for his blood!

The BBC has uncovered an agreement that involved the Kurd lead Syrian Defence Force, that has allowed an estimated 4000 IZAL fighters and retinue (whores and sons and daughters of their whores) to leave Raqqa, with some thought to have reached Turkey. Drivers hired to help carry so called civilians reported heavily armed men, many wearing suicide belts, arms to such an extent that a truck axle broke.

It had been reported that only local fighters had been allowed to leave Raqqa, and that no arms left with them. The drivers reported that armed fighters in their trucks came from France, Belgium, Egypt, China, Azerbaijan.